India’s economy grew more than economists estimated last quarter, adding to evidence of a strengthening in domestic demand that’s stoked inflation by placing strains on the nation’s transport and power systems.
Gross domestic product rose 8.9 percent in the three months through September from a year earlier, matching the revised pace of growth in the previous quarter, the Central Statistical Organisation said in a statement in New Delhi today. That was above the 8.2 percent median estimate of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
Improved infrastructure will prove critical to sustaining India’s expansion rate, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said this month as inflation runs almost double what the government regards as “ideal.” The Reserve Bank of India may need to resume raising interest rates in the coming months after lifting borrowing costs six times this year.
“Inflationary pressures remain high as strong growth fuels consumer demand amid rising capacity constraints,” said Vishnu Varathan, a Singapore-based economist at Capital Economics Ltd. “The Reserve Bank will have to come back and probably raise rates further early next quarter to ensure inflation remains under control.”
Central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao on Nov. 2 raised the benchmark repurchase rate and the reverse repurchase rate by a quarter-point each to 6.25 percent and 5.25 percent, saying inflation continues to hold above the “comfort zone.”
Not ‘Ideal’
The wholesale-price inflation rate was 8.58 percent in October, compared with the “ideal” level of 4 percent to 5 percent, according to Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee. Consumer prices are rising at a pace near 10 percent, the fastest in the Group of 20 nations after Argentina.
India’s GDP gain last quarter compares with an expansion of 1.9 percent in the 16-nation Euro area, 2.5 percent in the U.S. and 9.6 percent in China. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on Nov. 18 said high levels of unemployment in the U.S., Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis and growing trade imbalances around the world pose risks to the global recovery.
Faster growth is boosting revenue for Prime Minister Singh’s government, giving him room to cut the budget deficit to a targeted 5.5 percent of GDP from a 16-year high of 6.9 percent last year, even as spending on oil and fertilizer subsidies rises. Officials sought parliament’s approval on Nov. 15 to spend an extra 50 billion rupees ($1 billion) on fertilizer subsidies after seeking 140 billion rupees more to cap oil prices in August.
Bond Boost
India’s bonds have climbed this month as faster growth eases concern over the budget deficit. Yields on 10-year government bonds fell 7 basis points this month through today, to 8.04 percent, the only debt among BRIC nations to rally during the period. BRIC refers to Brazil, Russia, India and China. The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, was little changed at 19,400.46 as of 12:28 p.m. in Mumbai trading, erasing earlier declines of as much as 1 percent.
In the meantime, concern that political turmoil will impede legislative work has countered the effect of the RBI’s 1.5 percentage points of rate increases on the rupee, reducing its gains for the year against the dollar to about 1 percent.
The currency pared earlier losses and traded at 45.95 against the dollar after weakening as much as 0.4 percent to 46.1250 earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Federal investigators arrested eight Indian bankers and brokers on Nov. 24 amid allegations of improper loan disbursals.
Luring Capital
Economists including Anubhuti Sahay of Standard Chartered Bank said faster growth and a higher interest-rate differential may attract capital inflows that contribute to inflation.
The Reserve Bank of India’s benchmark repurchase rate is 6.25 percent. By comparison, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s target for overnight interbank loans is zero to 0.25 percent, where it has been since December 2008.
The rate differential between India and advanced countries spurred an unprecedented $10 billion inflow into rupee debt this year. Overseas funds also invested a record $28.5 billion in Indian stocks on prospects of faster economic expansion in the South Asian nation.
The $1.3 trillion economy is likely to expand 8.5 percent in the fiscal year through March, the most in three years, Prime Minister Singh said Nov. 20. Finance Minister Mukherjee said economic growth may exceed that target after today’s release, while Kaushik Basu, chief economic adviser in the ministry of finance, said India could achieve 9 percent growth sooner than expected.
Challenges to sustaining the growth pace include dealing “effectively with the threats of corruption,” Singh said earlier this month.
Corruption Risk
Opposition parties led by the main Bharatiya Janata Party have stalled parliament proceedings since Nov. 9, demanding a deeper probe against a minister who’s charged with awarding phone licenses at below-market prices.
Rising car sales and expanding bank credit provide evidence of growing consumer demand in Asia’s third-biggest economy.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., India’s biggest carmaker, Tata Motors Ltd. and others sold a record monthly 182,992 cars in October, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Loans given by lenders such as State Bank of India Ltd. and rivals rose 22.03 percent in the fortnight to Nov. 5, the fastest pace since January 2009.
Given the strong demand, high and sticky inflation levels, “we think the RBI will raise rates by another 25 basis points in its policy meeting in January,” said Indranil Pan, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. in Mumbai.
Farm output grew 4.4 percent in the three months through September, compared with a 2.5 percent gain in the previous quarter, today’s report showed. Mining grew 8 percent, manufacturing gained 9.8 percent, while construction rose 8.8 percent.