The NOA Awards last week (not attended by yours truly, owing to a bout of lurgy) were by all accounts a glittering success, Congratulations to all of the winners (such as destination of the year Egypt), and also to the nominees. There is clearly a great deal of innovation and good work out there, and that is indeed cause for celebration.

The big question, though, is how will we look back on 2009 at next year's event?

As 2008 draws to a downbeat close, with the UK economy in Q1 of a likely recession, we're facing a year to 18 months of rising unemployment, falling property prices, scarce credit, and business collapses – especially among smaller enterprises and manufacturers.

Some economists believe the worst is yet to come, and few would bet against further banking collapses. At least one international bank, which owns some UK finance names, has been quietly selling off its assets.

It's sometimes said that a recession is an opportunity for the outsourcing industry, in that companies looking to slash costs or source external, non-core expertise will turn to outsourced service providers. But I'd argue that's a challenge, not a cause for backslapping and glee.

Of course, there is good news... on the face of it. Despite the fact organisations worldwide are deferring capital expenditures, outsourcing continues to be the number one tool chosen to drive organisational change, according to EquaTerra’s quarterly Advisor and BPO/ITO Service Provider Pulse Survey.

The findings of the Q3 2008 edition show that demand for outsourcing is outpacing business investments in areas such as hardware, software and other types of more discretionary service.

Growth in outsourcing was positive in Q3, it said, with the focus shifting away from “longer-term initiatives and towards efforts that deliver a quick return on investment (RoI)... help align operating costs to reduced circumstances, and minimise short-term capital outlays”. In other words, projects that slash costs.

Despite this, the economy's losses are not our gains, and we must guard against celebrating.

Face it: most people still see outsourcing as about job losses, not expertise or innovation. In a recession – perhaps even a slump – that means storing up a huge amount of negative equity, if you like, in terms of people's attitude to our industry and we should take a careful step back from celebrating an apparent upturn in our fortunes. Otherwise we will be seen as part of the problem, and not as a long-term solution.

Celebrate innovation, as the NOA Awards did, and not an opportunity to trouser cash as unemployment soars, people default on payments, and businesses can't find the credit they need to survive.