Founding Member of FormIGA – the global Industry for Good Alliance

Growth or recession? That is the question

27 Aug 2010 12:00 AM | Anonymous

Figures: we are inundated by them. Constantly bombarded with interpretations and statistics, sometimes it can be hard to make sense of it all.

For example, figures from the US point to a very plausible double dip recession, whereas the messages from the UK have been mixed, to say the least.

Certainly, there is the issue of exams and results and between incredible (I would stress the ‘in-’ prefix) A-Level and GCSE results, and talk of an exam-driven culture, the concern many have is how well prepared for the future are pupils leaving school – especially where IT is concerned.

But this is just the tip of the iceberg. The education question leads us down an equally troubling (from the UK public/government perspective) path.

Indeed, the diminishing number of pupils taking IT means that while the demand for IT-related skills is on the up, the domestic offer is on the decline. As IT companies try to fill the 500,000 new IT jobs that, according to experts, will be required over the next five years, they are much more likely to look into sponsoring skilled foreign workers.

This brings us to immigration. The coalition government promised to cut net immigration by over 150,000 each year to l00,000 or less. Non-EU work visas have already been capped.

So what is it going to be: satisfying the domestic demand for IT jobs which may see immigration cuts be revised or reverted? Or sitting back while discouraged IT firms move elsewhere – and I don’t know how well that would fair for the economy long term.

Certainly, the Office for National Statistics may have put out figures indicating a 1.2% quarterly rise in GDP between April and June; apparently demonstrating the fastest growth in nearly a decade. But, is the growth indicative of an improving trend? Is it sustainable or is it misinformed optimism?

It’s funny how although economics is a science many of the factors that contribute to it and its indicators are subject to ‘confidence’ and its presence or lack thereof.

And while GDP figures show a recovery gathering speed, economic commentators have surprisingly discovered that the less privileged in society are likely to be hit the hardest by the budget cuts.

Talk about mixed messages?!

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